Iran’s Two Realities: Looser Social Rules, Harsher Political Repression

On the streets of Tehran, Iran appears to be changing. Women walk unveiled in broad daylight, couples sit openly in cafés, Western music plays in shopping arcades, and a quieter, more relaxed social atmosphere has settled over parts of the capital. Yet behind these visible shifts lies a far more consequential transformation — one that is reshaping Iran’s political and economic trajectory at a moment of heightened crisis.

Rather than signalling reform, the easing of social rules has coincided with one of the harshest crackdowns on political dissent since the 1980s. Activists, lawyers, journalists, students, and minority communities report widespread detentions, interrogations, and intimidation — a process that rights groups say is accelerating as Iran’s economic and geopolitical pressures deepen.

For Iran’s leadership, the strategy is deliberate. According to activists inside Iran and several officials who spoke to Reuters, the government is selectively relaxing social restrictions to ease public frustration while hardening its response to political challenges. The result is a dual reality: a more permissive street culture paired with a sharply intensifying security apparatus.

A Tactical Release Valve

The government’s approach follows three years of profound instability, starting with the 2022 nationwide protests triggered by the death of Mahsa Amini in morality-police custody. That unrest marked the biggest challenge to the Islamic Republic in decades, one that left the government wary of tighter policing over the hijab.

President Masoud Pezeshkian has repeatedly refused to implement a hardline-backed bill that would restore strict enforcement. In its place, the state appears to be testing a more flexible, localised strategy: relaxing visible controls while using targeted pressure behind the scenes to neutralize potential organizers.

Yet the crackdown is unmistakable. Rights groups say executions have surged to the highest level since 1989, with at least 1,176 people put to death in 2025 alone — an average of four per day. Activists report threats to family members, forced summons, and the detention of journalists and civil-society leaders, often under vague national-security charges.

The selective easing of social rules is functioning, analysts say, as a “pressure release valve” at a moment when Iran’s leadership faces mounting domestic anger, economic decay, and unprecedented strategic setbacks.

Economic and Geopolitical Pressures Collide

Iran’s economy is buckling under the combined weight of inflation, currency collapse, energy shortages, and the snapback of U.N. sanctions in September after nuclear negotiations with Washington stalled. These renewed penalties risk throttling what remains of Iran’s access to global trade — a critical threat for an economy already navigating water shortages, electricity rationing, and record unemployment.

Externally, Iran is confronting the aftermath of a destructive confrontation with Israel in June, which damaged military and nuclear facilities and weakened Tehran’s regional network of allies. The loss of key commanders and escalating risks of further Israeli strikes have intensified pressure on the government to maintain internal control at any cost.

For business leaders, economists, and political analysts, these pressures are pushing Iran into what one expert described as “uncharted territory.” The leadership’s short-term focus on political survival is overshadowing any coherent long-term economic strategy, deepening uncertainty for domestic industries and foreign investors.

A Controlled Image for the Outside World

Even as repression expands, Iran is curating a different image online. Government-linked influencers and state-sponsored travel bloggers broadcast a vibrant, cosmopolitan Iran — bustling bazaars, cultural festivals, and scenic landscapes. Street concerts circulate on TikTok and Instagram, showing young people dancing without headscarves in controlled venues.

These displays of cultural openness, however, do not reflect the broader reality. Activists say the performances are staged deliberately to shift global perceptions and attract tourism revenue while the state continues to tighten its political grip.

The divide between image and reality is growing wider: social freedoms presented as progress while political freedoms quietly contract.

The Unresolved Risk of Unrest

For Iran’s leadership, the central concern is preventing a repeat of mass protests. The memory of 2022 lingers, and the government understands that economic frustration remains volatile. Officials fear that renewed conflict with Israel or a collapse in nuclear diplomacy could push public anger past a tipping point.

Iran’s ruling elite appears to be betting that calibrated concessions — eased cultural rules, localized tolerance, selective social flexibility — can help contain dissent without forcing political reform.

But analysts warn the strategy is unstable. As one said: “Society is still angry, still disillusioned, and convinced the political and economic crisis will not ease.” Without structural change, Iran risks deeper volatility — even as the state accelerates its efforts to suppress it.